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Obama + 5%

Posted by TopOfTheThread on July 31, 2008

I watch the daily changes in the polls and believe they are extremely inaccurate. So inaccurate, they obama president should add 5% to an Obama numbers.

If Obama is forecasted at 46% (Gallup Daily Election Poll Results for the General Election, July 27-29, 2008, Based upon a three day rolling average of national registered voters. ) we should consider Obama’s number 51%.

Do I have any formal basis of knowledge to back it up? No. (But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night 😉 )

The major factor in the inaccuracy of the polls is the pollsters are not reaching a dominant sweet spot for Obama (Ages 18 – 25, cell phone users, students, online users, etc…)

I imagine Gallup is making calls to people. Reaching people over 30 years old… The bottom line is anyone who is picking up the phone (landline and cell) is not that sweet spot.

***************************

I checked to make sure the Gallup people were calling cell phones and found they do call them. (That’s a step in the right direction.)

Survey Methods (From Gallup)
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from July 27-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,682 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.

Good. At least they are calling cell phones.

I found it interesting that the chart on this page was a three-day rolling survey. They state they interview no fewer than 1,000 adults nationwide each day. So this is a three-day survey, wouldn’t they have at least 3,000 results in the survey versus the 2,682. (I am sure they can get 3,000 registered voters surveyed over the period.)

Remember this post in November, when Obama and McCain are 2 points apart in the polls going into the election and Obama wins by at least 7 points.

(photo http://www.dmiblog.com)

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