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No Robinson! Don’t Win the Home Run Contest! (Robinson Cano, All-Star Game)

Posted by TopOfTheThread on July 12, 2011

No I did not watch the Major League Baseball  Home Run Hitting Contest (All Star Break)…. I had better things to do.

This morning on ESPN Sports Center, I see that Robinson Cano of  the NY Yankees won the contest. Being a Yankee fan I immediately thought “Oh no. He is going to have a bad second half of the year.”  He probably messed up his swing trying to yank everything out of the ballpark.

“Damn.”

Then I get to the office and I voiced my concern to one of the guys (let’s call him Buck).  He passionately said “That’s not true. The winners of the home run hitting contests don’t necessary have bad second halves.   You’re beginning to sound like Bert”  (Where Bert is the name of someone in our accounting area.)

So I decided to look for the stats and see if  the All Star Home Run Kings tended to have poor second halves.

For each winner, I compared their total home runs for that year, the home runs hit before and after the All Star break, and calculated the percentage hit after the All Star break. I also entered their total number of At Bats to make sure they played the entire year. Note: I only had the stats since 2000. Everyone had over 500 At Bats.

Regular Season Home Runs
MLB Home Run Derby Winner and Year Total HR for Year PreAll Star PostAll Star % PostAll Star AB
2010: David Ortiz 32 18 14 44% 518
2009: Prince Fielder 46 22 24 52% 591
2008: Justin Morneau 23 14 9 39% 623
2007: Vladimir Guerrero 27 14 13 48% 574
2006: Ryan Howard 58 28 30 52% 581
2005: Bobby Abreu 24 18 6 25% 588
2004: Miguel Tejada 34 15 19 56% 653
2003: Garret Anderson 29 22 7 24% 638
2002: Jason Giambi 41 22 19 46% 560
2001: Luis Gonzalez 35 23 12 34% 609
2000: Sammy Sosa 50 23 27 54% 604

Based upon these numbers, 4 of the 11 years, the winner had significantly less home runs the second half of the year.  I wish I had more data but it is interesting to think about.

My conclusion?  It does happen enough times to think about it.

Go Robinson! Here’s to a great second half of 2011.

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